A few days ago, we reached the half-way mark of the ISL 2020-21. Some clear leaders and laggards are emerging, and the fight for the pay offs are getting tighter. An improved East Bengal rekindled hopes among millions, and only time will tell if the improvement continues and a place in the playoff is secured. Over the last 55 games, much information got tracked, and we will attempt to provide some “unseen” revelations by looking into a trend.
Top Half
Mumbai City FC
Mumbai City FC is the deserving table topper of the ISL 2020-21 and has one foot in the playoff. They created a significant gap with the rest in the field. Most football lovers love the style of play. The team maintained a 61% possession with high passing accuracy – which is a formidable combination. The squad has enough depth to sustain the time crunch in the later stage of the league. For this team attack is their form of defense -they conceded little because they did not allow teams to have a sight on their goal.
Verdict: Likely table topper.
ATK
ATK is second in the rung. Most football lovers dub them as “boring” because of their style of play. The team hates possession (42%) and is happy to wait and pounce in counter-attacks. Despite significantly less ball possession than Mumbai, ATK is only two shy of attempts at goal – 106 to Mumbai’s 108. In contrast, because of their low defense line, opposition attempts at their goal is disproportionately more. They started as a true defending Champion and earned 12 from the first five games. As the ISL 2020-21 goes on, ATK will need to work harder to maintain its position.
Verdict: Likely #2 or #3.
Hyderabad FC
Hyderabad is a team on their upswing. They finished at the bottom in the last edition. Detailed planning and persisting to the plan brings them in the top three in ISL 2020-21. The team managed 53% possession and made 146 (one of the highest) attempts at the opposition goal. They also managed to keep the opposition at bay (96 attempts at their goal), achieving the highest differential. We expect the team to at least maintain (if not improve) their standing.
Verdict: Likely #3 or #2.
FC Goa
Goa topped the table last year. Historically, teams from Goa love possession, and this team is no exception. They again managed the highest possession (64%) and were out-possessed only in their game against Mumbai City. Like Hyderabad, they too have a healthy +44 differential on for vs. against attempts. Goa and Hyderabad are two teams with much in common, and they will remain a strong contender for the last four in ISL 2020-21. Igor Angulo heads the scorer list with nine goals, that is nearly 70% of all of Goa’s goals.
Verdict: Strong contender for last 4.
Challengers
Jamshedpur FC
Jamshedpur finished the first leg of the ISL 2020-21 at number 5. With a quality squad, Jamshedpur underperformed a bit. They have a -13 differential on attempts vs. opposition foray and managed 44% ball possession. They failed to win against a 10-man East Bengal and lost to a 10-man Kerala Blasters. In contrast, a 10-man Jamshedpur held firm against Mumbai. They need to improve on consistency. Valskis was steel city’s answer to Igor; he scored eight goals, that is 67% of all their scoring.
Verdict: Unlikely to be in the last 4.
Bengaluru FC
Bengaluru is the team that set the standard of Indian football for quite a while. This year the unit shows signs of wear and tear, and the reset button got pressed, leading to an unlikely exit of Cuadrat. In ISL 2020-21 Bengaluru is a shadow of their past. With 51% possession and +20 differential on for vs. against attempts they are still one of the better teams; however, the spice is missing.
Verdict: Outside contender for last 4.
NortEast United FC
N.E. United is another team that pressed the reset button in the middle of the season by sacking Gerard Nus. Incoming coach Khaled is likely to focus even more on a defensive, counter-attacking game. NE had the lowest (40%) possession of all teams in ISL 2020-21.
Verdict: Unlikely to be in the last 4.
Chennaiyin FC
Chennaiyin is last year’s finalists, in ISL 2020-21 8th position is a bit harsh. The team plays a relatively open, attacking game. They have an extremely high (+41) differential on for vs. against attempts, but the differential diminishes to just +4 when on-target attempts are considered. A goal differential of -3 makes things look even worse. They require some adjustments in their style.
Verdict: Outside contender for last 4.
Bottom half
Kerala Blasters
Kerala Blasters disappointed. They have a squad that is worthy of much more and remain the underperformers of ISL 2020-21. They showed grit against Jamshedpur and Hyderabad but were pedestrian otherwise. More than the offense, it is the defense that seems to be the issue. Unless major improvements happen, Kerala is unlikely to make it to the playoffs.
Verdict: Unlikely to be in the last 4.
Odisha FC
Odisha seems to be the minnows in ISL 2020-21. They had not been able to hold on to the ball (43% possession) and could not keep the opposition at bay (152 attempts against them). Odisha may cause a few upsets, but is an unlikely contender for a playoff spot.
Verdict: Unlikely to be in the last 4.
SC East Bengal
East Bengal. Participation was confirmed late, and this team was stitched together hastily. As a newcomer, the team needed to climb a steep learning curve. All the foreigners were new to Indian conditions, and very few Indian players together before. Expectedly, the team struggled. In the first five games, the team was not competitive. The gritty 10-men goalless draw against Jamshedpur restored some belief. Atrocious decisions and ill-luck dragged along; but off-late, the team is in a journey of redemption. In the first five games, the team secured 1 point with a goal difference of -8. In the last five games, the team secured 9 points with a goal difference of +3.
Millions of fans are now prospecting a play-off spot. However, a deeper look underneath the hood suggests that the journey of improvement is far from over. East Bengal’s attacking force in the last five games improved (11 to 19 on-target attempts); however, the defensive woes continue (19 to 28 on-target opposition attempts). To date, the team has the least (94) attempts at the opposition goal, while there were the highest (155) opposition attempts.
In the event East Bengal continue to improve their fairy tale story of the last five games, we project Goa, Bengaluru, and Chennaiyin as their prime contestant for the last playoff slot. It will be a photo finish and the head-to-head games will be crucial.
